[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 9 10:10:20 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed elevated at 700km/sec over UT day,
due to coronal hole wind stream. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated mildy southward
over the UT day. Solar region 730, 732 and 733 have flare potential.
Solar region 732 produced some minor flare activity over the
past 24 hours. Low to moderate activity expected for next few
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 23 4433 4444
Darwin 20 3433 3444
Learmonth 23 3333 4544
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 25 -434 4443
Hobart - ---- ----
Casey(Ant) 31 53-- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 23 3323 5455
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 17 active
10 Feb 12 Unsettled
11 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 7 February and
is current for interval 8-9 February. Active periods expected
today due to coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mid to high latitude HF communications mildly degraded
next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
No data available over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 5 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 7 February
and is current for interval 8-9 February. Lower than normal MUFs
observed local day yesterday. Lower than normal MUFs observed
after local dawn this morning following cooronal hole wind stream
induced activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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