[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 25 10:07:37 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity is likely to remain at very low levels with a
slight chance of a C-class x-ray flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 1112 3121
Darwin 4 1112 2122
Learmonth 7 1113 3221
Culgoora 4 0112 3111
Canberra 4 0112 3111
Hobart 4 0112 3111
Casey(Ant) 11 2333 3222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled
26 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled
27 Dec 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: An increase in geomagnetic activity to active and minor
storm levels is possible on 27 December due to a coronal hole
high speed wind stream moving into a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Observed spread F at Niue and Scott overnight, otherwise
Normal HF conditions noted for this particular time in the season
and solar cycle.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec 24 near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 24 near predicted monthly values
27 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: T index increased slightly above monthly predicted values
most likely due to a slight increase in spot numbers/solar activity.
Expect MUFs to be near predicted monthly values or slightly higher
until late on 27 December due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
moving into geoeffective position.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 32600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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