[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec:  86/29

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Dec             20 Dec             21 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 
24 hours. A few B-class flares were observed, mostly from 
region 834(S06W46). Solar wind speed remained close to 
300 km/s until around 1000UT and then showed a rapid rise 
to 370 km/s. Solar wind speed then gradually decreased to 
310 km/s by the time of this report. The north-south component 
of the interplanetory magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to 
mild fluctuations on both sides of the normal value almost 
the whole day today. Solar activity is expected to remain at 
very low to low levels during the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2112 2112
      Darwin               5   2122 2112
      Learmonth            4   2112 2112
      Culgoora             5   3112 2112
      Canberra             4   2112 2102
      Hobart               -   ---- ----
      Casey(Ant)          10   -3-3 3111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec : 
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   0112 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Dec     5    Quiet 
20 Dec     5    Quiet 
21 Dec     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet 
levels during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is 
expected to remain mostly at quiet levels during the next 
three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Isolated disturbed periods were observed even on 
some low latitude locations during the last 24 hours. HF 
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on most 
locations during the next 3 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Dec    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Dec    16    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Dec    16    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Dec    16    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions during the next 3 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 316 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    19200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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