[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 15 10:38:05 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with
only a C1.0 class event at 1012UT from region 836(S10W52).
Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 460 to 380
km/s during the UT day today. The north-south component of
the interplanetory magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the
normal value almost the whole day today. Region 835(N18E14)
is still the largest region on the visible solar disk but it
has shown some decay during the last 24 hours. Solar activity
is expected to remain at low levels during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 2321 1012
Darwin 4 2221 1012
Learmonth 3 1221 1011
Culgoora 3 1221 1011
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart - ---- ----
Casey(Ant) 11 34-2 2122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0210 3112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible.
16 Dec 6 Quiet
17 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected on 15
December. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet levels on 16 and 17 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Isolated disturbed periods were observed even on
some low latitude locations during the last 24 hours. HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal during the
next 3 days on most locations with some possibility of minor
to mild degradations on high latitudes on 15 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec 17 Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec 17 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly depressed HF conditions where observed
even on some low latitude locations during the last 24 hours.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for Australian/NZ
regions during the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 73700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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