[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 13 10:42:53 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with only minor B class events from region 835 the only notable
flare activity. Solar activity levels are expected to be very
low with only a slight chance of isolated C-class events. Solar
wind velocity gradually declined from 550km/s at 0000UT to be
450km/s at the time of this report. The north south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between
+/-5nT throughout the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 3321 2223
Darwin 6 2221 2223
Learmonth 8 3221 2233
Culgoora 7 2321 2222
Canberra 7 2321 2223
Hobart 7 2321 2222
Casey(Ant) 14 4--3 2232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 22 3234 2553
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
14 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours, with isolated Active periods for high latitudes
due to coronal hole effects. Predominently Unsettled conditions
are expected for the next 2 days with possible Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours
for all latitudes due to increased geomagnetic activity.
Improving conditions are expected over the next 2 days,
with possible disturbed conditions for low to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 20 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 11 December
and is current for interval 11-14 December. Depressed HF conditions
where observed over the last 24 hours for all regions due to
increased geomgnetic activity. These conditions are expected
to improve over the next 24 hours with the decline in geomagnetic
activity, but with possible disturbed periods for Southern Aus.
and NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 231000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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