[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 11 10:51:03 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with no notable flare activity. Solar activity levels are expected
to range from very low to low levels for the next 2 days with
the chance of isolated C-class events. Solar wind velocity climbed
at 0700UT from 300km/s to 400km/s and remained at this level.
Bz had two southward periods (max -10nT) during the UT day, these
being at 0000UT-0500UT and 1600UT-1900UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 3332 2233
Darwin 8 2321 1233
Learmonth 10 3322 2233
Culgoora 8 2321 1232
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 12 3431 2232
Casey(Ant) 14 --43 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1000 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
12 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
13 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Unsettled,
with isolated Active periods over the last 24 hours stemming
from a slight elevation in the solar wind parameters. Similar
conditions are expected to continue for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions over the last 24 hours were mostly normal
for low latitudes, with depressed conditions for mid to high
latitudes due to a slight increase in geomagnetic activity. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 25 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions where observed over the
last 24 hours for Northern Aus. and Equatorial regions. Depressed
conditions observed for Southern Aus and NZ regions after an
increase in geomagnetic activity over the entire UT day. Similar
conditions are expected over mid-high latitudes for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 276 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 12600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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