[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 9 10:48:31 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
the most notable event being a C1.7-class flare at 1902UT from
a region located on the east limb yet to rotate onto disc. Region
826 also produced numerous B-class flares. Similar activity levels
are expected for the next 24 hours, with the chance of further
C-class events with new active regions rotating onto disc. Solar
wind velocity continued to decline to be at a minimum of 280km/s
at 1300UT, after which it rose to 300km/s at 1800UT but then
fell to be 280km/s at the time of this report. During this period
of increased solar wind velocity, Bz was southward for the only
time of the UT day at a maximum of -6nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 1110 1111
Darwin 2 1110 1112
Learmonth 2 1110 0111
Culgoora 1 0110 0111
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 2 1010 1111
Casey(Ant) 5 2-21 1212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 7 Quiet
10 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet at all latitudes during
the last 24 hours. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected
to continue for the next 2 days, with possible Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the last 24 hours
with isolated disturbed periods for low latitudes. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec 25 near predicted monthly values
10 Dec 25 near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 25 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions where observed over the
last 24 hours, with a mix of enhanced periods during local day
and night, as well as disturbed periods for Equatorial and Northern
Aus. regions. Normal HF conditions where observed for Southern
Aus. and NZ regions. These conditions are expected to continue
for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 11000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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