[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 2 10:55:15 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Dec             03 Dec             04 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Over 
the next several days expect low to moderate solar activity with 
the possiblity of isolated M class x-ray flares due to spot region 
10826. This region shows a complex magnetic field and a growing 
spot area. It has also produced multiple B and C class x-ray 
flares throughout 1 Dec, the largest was a C6 flare occurring 
at at 0837UT. Boulder region number 10824 produced a C2 x-ray 
flare which peaked at 01/0238UT and was associated with a type 
II sweep and CME. SOHO LASCO C3 images show the CME commencing 
at 01/0418UT on the west limb. This may result in increased geomagnetic 
activity on 03 December. An equatorial coronal hole is presently 
in a geoeffective position and as a result solar wind speed is 
at aproximately 700 km/sec. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Unsettled to active levels. r
storm periods at high latitudes. 
With the Earth currently passing through a coronal hole wind 
stream magnetic activity is likely to remain at these levels 
over the next 24 hours. Minor storm periods possible at high 
latitudes, particularly if Bz turns significantly southward. 
On 3 December after the Earth leaves the coronal hole wind stream 
the geomagnetic field may remain active due to the CME effects 
associated with the C2 class x-ray flare occurring on 01/0238UT. 

Estimated Indices 01 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3323 2224
      Darwin               9   3223 2224
      Learmonth           11   3223 2333
      Culgoora            10   3323 2223
      Canberra            10   3323 2224
      Hobart              10   3323 2224
      Casey(Ant)          22   5--4 3234
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            64   (Active)
      Hobart             105   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3224 3123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Dec    18    active 
03 Dec    18    active 
04 Dec    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 30 November 
and is current for interval 30 November to 2 December. Geomagnetic 
activity was generally unsettled at mid-low latitudes over the 
UT day, with active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. 
With the Earth currently passing through a coronal hole wind 
stream magnetic activity is likely to remain at these levels 
over the next 24 hours. Minor storm periods possible at high 
latitudes, particularly if Bz turns significantly southward. 
On 3 December after the Earth leaves the coronal hole wind stream 
the geomagnetic field may remain active due to the CME effects 
associated with the C2 class x-ray flare occurring on 01/0238UT. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Isolated cases of depressed conditions noted overnight 
at low latitudes with Spread F. Darwin and Camden experienced 
periods of Sporadic E, otherwise near predicted conditions noted. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Dec    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  19

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Dec    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30% 
03 Dec    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30% 
04 Dec    20    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 30 November 
and is current for interval 30 November to 2 December. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 626 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   282000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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