[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 1 10:56:04 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1752UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: ???/???
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN ???/??? ???/??? ???/???
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours.
All significant flaring in the period occurred from Region 826
(S00E35), the largest of which was an M1.4 Xray flare that commenced
at 1746UT. Five B-class flares were also recorded in the period.
Region 826 is classed as a DAI and is capable of producing further
M-class flares in the next 24 hours. The background solar Xray
flux is steadily increasing as a result of R826 and active regions
recently rotated onto the East limb. An equatorial coronal hole
has moved into geoeffective position. As a result solar wind
speeds increased steadily throughout the previous 24 hours to
be just over 700km/s at the end of the UT day. High solar wind
speeds are expected for at least another 24 hours as the Earth
passes through the coronal hole wind stream. IMF Bz was mostly
northwards over the UT day, however it showed a southwards turning
to ~ -5nT at the end of the UT day, suggesting an increase in
magnetic reconnection.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 4233 3222
Darwin 10 3223 3223
Learmonth 14 4233 3232
Culgoora 10 3233 2222
Canberra 11 3233 3222
Hobart 11 3233 3222
Casey(Ant) 22 5--4 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Culgoora 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 72 (Active)
Hobart 89 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg ??
Planetary ??
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg ??
Planetary ?? 2001 0213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 15 Mostly unsettled.
Probability of minor storm levels at higher latitudes.
02 Dec 18 Mostly unsettled.
Probability of minor storm levels at higher latitudes.
03 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 30 November
and is current for interval 30 November to 2 December. Geomagnetic
activity was generally unsettled at mid-low latitudes over the
UT day, with active to minor storm periods at high latitudes
early in the UT day. With the Earth currently passing through
a coronal hole wind stream magnetic activity is likely to remain
at these levels over the next 24 hours. Minor storm periods possible
at high latitudes, particularly if Bz turns significantly southward.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Fair
02 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Both enhancements and depletions were observed at low
latitudes over the day. Mid latitudes showed mild enhancements
and high latitudes were midly disturbed as a result of enhanced
magnetic activity early in the UT day. Once more sporadic E was
strong in various locations. Expect mostly normal conditions
with continuing variability at low latitudes. Depressed periods
possible at high latitudes if minor storm magnetic conditions
eventuate.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 30 near predicted monthly values
02 Dec 27 near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 30 November
and is current for interval 30 November to 1 December. Mostly
normal conditions in the Australian region over the UT day, expected
to continue. Some variability expected in northern Australia
and PNG region and possible depressions in the Antarctic.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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