[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 17 09:52:18 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next 3
days, however there remains a slight chance of a C class flare
from region 10797. No significant events noted on GOES x-ray
or SOHO LASCO imagery. Solar wind speed remains elevated in response
to recurrent coronal hole wind stream which is expected to decline
over the next day. However another coronal hole is evident in
SOHO EIT imagery extending south from lat -8 and East from the
central meridian, which may be geoeffective in three days time.
SOHO EIT imagery shows the return of the solar region 10791.
This region did not produce significant flare activity on its
previous rotation.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
16/1335UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Unsettled to active
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 14 3433 3223
Learmonth 13 3322 4324
Culgoora 10 2323 3222
Canberra 14 3433 3223
Hobart 16 3433 4222
Casey(Ant) 17 3443 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 125 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1111 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 18 active
18 Aug 12 Unsettled
19 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Elevated levels of geomagnetic activity should continue
today as a result of the Earth remaining in a coronal hole wind
stream, gradually returning to quiet-unsettled levels over the
following two days. Possibility of increased geomagnetic activity
late on 19th due to another coronal hole currently passing the
central meridian.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions observed at high latitudes overnight.
Mild degradation of HF communications expected over the day at
mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 25 near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depression observed at low latitudes, with slight
enhancement overnight in southern Aus/NZ region, otherwise near
predicted monthly values observed. Expect similar conditions
to prevail on the 17th in response to elevated magnetic activity,
returning to near normal on the 18th and 19th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 80300 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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