[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Aug             07 Aug             08 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1211 1232
      Learmonth            7   1121 1332
      Culgoora             7   2211 2232
      Canberra             4   1100 1231
      Hobart               5   1111 2231
      Casey(Ant)           9   2332 1232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   3343 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Aug    12    Unsettled 
07 Aug    11    Unsettled 
08 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Aug    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Aug    35    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    78600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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