[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind speed moderately elevated at 500km/sec due 
to coronal hole wind stream. The Sun has been predomiately flare 
quiet of the past 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 12 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3333 4333
      Learmonth           16   3333 4333
      Culgoora            13   3233 3333
      Canberra            18   3334 4333
      Hobart              21   3334 5333
      Casey(Ant)          16   3333 3343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              62   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   1101 2343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr    18    active 
14 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
15 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Coronal hole wind stream induced activity expected to 
continue today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Apr    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr    50    enhanced 15%,then possibly depressed15% 
14 Apr    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
15 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 10 April 
and is current for interval 12-13 April. Enhanced conditions 
observed yesterday. Mild depression for southern Aus/NZ region 
possible later today or next day. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    7.0 p/cc  Temp:    50000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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