[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind slow and steady at around 350km/sec. Solar 
wind speed expected to increase in next 24 hours due to anticpated 
entry into a coronal hole wind stream. No significant flare activity 
of past 24 hours. Some activity seen off southeast limb (south 
24) by Learmonth and Culgoora H-alpha patrol. Activity was present 
a few days ago as well but now seems to have stopped. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1110 1000
      Learmonth            1   2100 1000
      Culgoora             0   1000 1001
      Canberra             0   1000 1000
      Hobart               0   1000 1000
      Casey(Ant)           5   2231 1101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora           126   (Severe storm)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2101 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr    16    active 
12 Apr    18    active 
13 Apr    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 10 April and 
is current for interval 11-12 April. Moderate coronal hole wind 
stream induced geomagnetic activity expected next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are expected for mid to high latitudes, 
over the next 2 days due to expected coronal hole wind stream 
induced geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Apr    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr    50    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
12 Apr    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
13 Apr    20    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 10 April 
and is current for interval 12-13 April. Good HF communication 
conditions now expected for today. Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs 
expected to be lower than normal in coming days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    26800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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