[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 05

Sat Apr 9 09:55:17 EST 2005

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr:  88/32

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Apr             10 Apr             11 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2111 1011
      Learmonth            3   2011 2011
      Culgoora             1   1100 1000
      Canberra             0   1000 1000
      Hobart               1   1001 1011
      Casey(Ant)           8   3322 1121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   2232 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Apr     6    Quiet 
10 Apr     7    Quiet 
11 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Apr    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     No data available during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Apr    35    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
10 Apr    35    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
11 Apr    35    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    54100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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