[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Sep             01 Oct             02 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: There has been no significant solar activity over the 
past 24 hours. Solar wind conditions nominal, with the solar 
wind velocity ranging between 380-420km/s and Bz fluctuating 
mildly around nuetral and 5nT. Conditions expected to continue 
for the next two days with no significant solar regions or activity 
on disc. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2121 3122
      Darwin               6   2121 3123
      Townsville           6   2121 3122
      Learmonth            6   2021 3122
      Culgoora             5   1121 3112
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               5   1111 3222
      Casey(Ant)           7   --32 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2232 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Sep     7    Quiet 
01 Oct     7    Quiet 
02 Oct     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days with 
isolated Unsettled periods. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Local overnight depressions observed at low latitudes, 
with continued variable conditions possible for the next two 
days. Conditions should be mostly normal for mid-high latitudes 
over the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Sep    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values 
01 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 
02 Oct    45    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Overnight depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus region. 
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over the next few days 
at mid to high latitudes with possible overnight and post-dawn 
depressed conditions at low latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:    96700 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"