[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Sep             24 Sep             25 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 
0554UT on 22 Sep, due to the M1.9 flare on 19 Sep. Solar wind 
speed increased to about 550 km/sec around that time before 
gradually decreasing over the day to around 450 km/sec. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Some active to 
minor storm levels 06-15 UT following a Sudden Impulse at 0634UT,
otherwise quiet to unsettled. 

Estimated Indices 22 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   1243 4333
      Darwin              15   1243 4333
      Townsville          15   1243 4333
      Learmonth           16   2133 5333
      Culgoora            12   1233 4323
      Canberra            18   1243 5333
      Hobart              15   1132 5333
      Casey(Ant)          21   3-44 4334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 SEP : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            80   (Active)
      Hobart              75   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2332 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IMF Bz was southwards from approx 1000 UT onwards. 
A weak (27nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 0634UT on 22 Sep. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Conditions should be mostly normal for 23 September 
for mid-low latitudes, with improving HF conditions for high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Sep    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by up to 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values 
24 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values 
25 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 20 September 
and is current for interval 22-23 September. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 403 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:   112000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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