[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 18 09:36:22 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar regions 672 and 673 have the possibility of producing
C-class flare activity. Solar wind speeds remained mildly elevated
over the past 24 hours, ranging from approximately 550km/s down
to 450 km/s. Elevated solar wind speeds are most likely due to
a geoeffectively positioned coronal hole. Solar wind speeds are
expected to decline slowly over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 3332 3223
Darwin 11 3332 3223
Townsville 12 3333 3223
Learmonth 10 3232 3223
Culgoora 12 3333 3223
Canberra 10 3332 2223
Hobart 11 3332 3223
Casey(Ant) 14 4333 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Hobart 56 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17 3344 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 15 Unsettled, chance active periods.
19 Sep 12 Quiet to unsettled
20 Sep 8 Quiet
COMMENT: The Earth is presently under the influence of a high
speed coronal hole solar wind stream which is expected to result
in isolated active periods for 18 September. Conditions should
be mostly unsettled to quiet for 19-20 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Overnight pre-midnight enhancements observed again at
equatorial latitudes for 17 Sept, followed by pre-dawn depressions.
Possible local pre-dawn depressions again for equatorial latitudes
for 18 September, with conditions returning to mostly normal
for all regions for 19-20 Sepember.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night,
Depressed 15-30% before local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 45 near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 45 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overnight pre-midnight enhancements observed again at
equatorial latitudes for 17 Sept, followed by pre-dawn depressions.
Possible local pre-dawn depressions again for equatorial latitudes
for 18 September, with conditions returning to mostly normal
for all regions for 19-20 Sepember.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 537 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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