[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 9 09:44:07 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Active regions 667 and 669 maintain moderate magnetic
complexity. There was no significant flare activity over the
past 24 hours. A weak 90-degree halo CME was observed in the
south-west quadrant around 05UT. Background X-ray flux remains
at B-levels. Increasing background solar radio noise has been
observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph over the past few
days. This is probably in association with an approaching active
region. Loop prominence activity has been observed on the east
limb, just north of the solar equator, also in association with
this approaching feature.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 2222 2101
Darwin 5 2221 2112
Townsville 5 2222 2102
Learmonth 3 2121 2001
Culgoora 4 2221 2102
Canberra 4 1222 2002
Hobart 4 1222 2101
Casey(Ant) 6 2232 2000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 3444 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters declined towards nominal values
over the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was slightly southward over most of the UT day, tending
towards neutral late in the day. Geomagnetic conditions in the
Australasian region were generally quiet, with isolated unsettled
periods observed at high latitudes only. Expect similar conditions
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night and
after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild overnight spread-F observed SE Australia/NZ regions.
Spread-F conditions observed generally Antarctic regions. Mostly
good conditions expected for the next few days. Equatorial/N
Aus regions may experience moderate overnight enhancements.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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