[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Oct             27 Oct             28 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds varied between 450km/s to 550km/s 
with short periods of southward IMF during the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind speeds are expected to decline slowly for 26-27 October. 
Solar region 687 has the chance of producing further M-class 
flare activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3333 3222
      Darwin              11   3232 3312
      Townsville          11   2333 3223
      Learmonth           13   3333 3322
      Culgoora            10   2233 3222
      Canberra            11   2333 3221
      Hobart              13   2334 3221
      Casey(Ant)          15   4--4 3212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 OCT : 
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            90   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            76   (Active)
      Hobart              84   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2001 2342     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Oct     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Small periods of southward IMF resulted in storm levels 
at high latitudes during the past 24 hours. Mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected for the next days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal too good HF conditions with slightly degraded 
conditions at high latitudes are expected for the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Oct    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly enhanced during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Moslty near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Oct    55    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
27 Oct    55    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
28 Oct    55    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for interval 25-27 October (SWFs) . Mostly normal 
too good HF conditions with slightly degraded conditions at high 
latitudes are expected for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 451 km/sec  Density:    7.5 p/cc  Temp:   136000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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