[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Oct             16 Oct             17 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed remained between 500 and 550 km/s throughout 
the day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) was mostly southwards throughout the day. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 14 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   2334 5322
      Darwin              15   2234 4322
      Townsville          20   3334 5322
      Learmonth           19   2234 5332
      Culgoora            19   2334 5323
      Canberra            23   2345 5323
      Hobart              23   2345 5322
      Casey(Ant)          15   3-33 3332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 OCT : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            70   (Active)
      Hobart              57   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             35   4554 5433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Oct    15    Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods possible. 
16 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled 
17 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Activity was at active to minor storm levels during 
the middle of the UT day, and otherwise quiet to unsettled, due 
to recurrent coronal hole activity. Active levels may continue 
to be observed 15 Oct as activity declines to quiet to unsettled 
conditions thereafter. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair     
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected to continue over 
the next 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Oct    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Oct    10    near predicted monthly values at low lats. Depressed 
                15-20% during local day at mid to high lats, 
                then near predicted monthly values. 
16 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 
17 Oct    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 14 October 
and is current for interval 15 October only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 468 km/sec  Density:    8.7 p/cc  Temp:   164000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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