[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 13 09:44:49 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity has been very low over the
last 24 hours. No significant event has been recorded
during this period. The solar wind speed remained between
410 km/s and 440 km/s (approx.) almost the whole day. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) showed minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal
value throughout the day. The solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels during the next few days.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 12/1205UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 2222 0103
Darwin 4 2122 1112
Townsville 4 2122 1112
Learmonth 4 2222 0003
Culgoora 4 1122 1112
Canberra 3 2122 0004
Hobart 4 2222 0102
Casey(Ant) 10 3343 0003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3321 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 14 Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
14 Oct 14 Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
15 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Due to the effect of a recurrent coronal hole
the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain enhanced
to mostly unsettled levels with possibility of some active
and quiet periods for the next two days. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to gradually decline thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Periods of minor to moderate depressions in MUFs
and degradations in HF conditions may be observed during
the next two days, especially on mid and high latitudes,
due to a possible continued rise in the geomagnetic
activity during this period. The HF conditions are expected
to gradually return to normal around 15 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% with periods of significant
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
14 Oct 42 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
15 Oct 48 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions may be observed in the
Southern Aus/NZ regions during the next two days due to a
possible continued rise in the geomagnetic activity during
this period. The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 166000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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