[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 15 10:07:54 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Regions
699(S13E02) and 700(N04W39) produced low C and B-class
flares, the largest being a C1.2 flare from region 700
at 1416UT. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease
from 500 to 450 km/s (approx.) during the UT day. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) showed minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal
value almost the whole day. Isolated C-class flares may be
possible during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 2222 2221
Darwin 7 2222 2222
Townsville 6 2222 2211
Learmonth 8 3322 2211
Culgoora 5 2221 2121
Canberra 7 2222 2221
Hobart 8 2222 3221
Casey(Ant) 10 3--3 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2242 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 6 Quiet
16 Nov 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
17 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days with
some possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 16 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-normal
PCA Event : Began at 1915UT 07/11, Ended at 1510UT 13/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions returned to normal after the effect
of the CMEs in most regions around the globe. However, minor
to significant degradations were also recorded in some high
latitude areas. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations during the next three days with
some possiblity of minor degradations on high latitudes on
16 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov 35 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
16 Nov 32 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
17 Nov 35 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions returned to mostly normal in most
parts of the Aus/NZ regions during the last 24 hours. The
HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in most
areas of Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 46400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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