[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 12 11:15:56 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:*YELLOW* ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar region 696 has decayed significantly during the
past 24 hours but still has the chance of further flare activity
before rotating around the limb. Solar wind parameters indicate
the presence of a shock in the solar wind at around 1643UT on
11 November that is most likely due to the CME observed in association
with the M8-flare late on 9 November. Effects in the solar wind
from this CME have not been as significant as expected, with
solar wind speeds increasing from 540km/s to approximately 600
km/s. As yet the CME observed in association with X2-flare on
10 November has not yet impacted the Earth. Effects from this
second CME are now expected to be less significant than initially
anticipated.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1643UT
on 11 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 2333 2335
Darwin 14 2343 2336
Townsville 12 2333 2335
Learmonth 12 2333 2335
Culgoora 11 2333 2324
Canberra 11 2333 2324
Hobart 14 2433 3324
Casey(Ant) 23 4543 2345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 NOV :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Culgoora 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 117 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 101
Planetary 181 8899 7654
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 30 Unsettled to active with possible minor storm
periods.
13 Nov 20 Unsettled to active
14 Nov 16 Unsettled
COMMENT: CME activity observed on November 9 and 10 is not expected
to be as geoeffective and initially anticipated. Isolated minor
storm periods are possible for 12 November with activity abating
slowly over the next 2 days.
A weak (15nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1712UT on 11 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 11 2004 1915UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor(PCA)
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have been significantly degraded during
the past 24 hours at all latitudes. Significantly degraded conditions
are expected again at all latitudes for 12 November with conditions
slowly returning to normal from 13 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov -51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov -35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
13 Nov 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 25 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 10 November
and is current for interval 11-13 November (SWFs) . HF conditions
have been significantly degraded during the past 24 hours at
all latitudes with depressions of 20-40% and higher at times.
Significantly degraded conditions are expected again at all latitudes
for 12 November with conditions slowly returning to normal from
13 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 680 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 33800 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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