[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 10 11:02:10 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M8.9 1719UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was High, with
region 696 producing a long duration M8.9 flare and an associated
proton event. This flare at 1700UT produced a full halo CME as
seen on the LASCO C3 imagery and is expected to be geoeffective,
with an expected shock arrival on 11Nov. There was also a few
minor C class events from region 698. With continual long duration
flares occuring, proton flux levels >10MeV have been maintained
to still be residing above the 10pfu range. Region 696 stll remains
quite large in sunspot size but also underwent a small amount
of decay in the last 24 hours and it still retains a complex
magnetic structure with further C and M-Class events possible.
The solar wind velocity continued to be elevated with sharp increaes
from 580km/s-800km/s at 0920UT after which is decayed slightly
and then had another major step increase from 620km/s-800km/s
and remained so to the time of this report. The north south component
of the interplanetary magentic field Bz was southward for most
of the day at -6nT, but then went strongly southward -20nT between
1800UT and 2100UT. It then swung northward to be at 40nT at the
time of this report. The GOES satelite magnetometer indicated
another Geo-Synchronous crossing of the magnetosphere at 1900UT
as a result of the arriving shock wave.
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 0914UT on 09
Nov, and a strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1819UT
on 09 Nov.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
09/0855UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 49 3456 5567
Darwin 44 3346 5567
Townsville 51 3456 6466
Learmonth 59 4346 6576
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 52 3555 6567
Hobart 57 3555 -577
Casey(Ant) 38 3445 4566
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 NOV :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 12 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 85
Planetary 100
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 116
Planetary 189 9998 6345
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 50 Storm levels
11 Nov 50 Storm levels
12 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 9 November
and is current for interval 9-11 November. Geomagnetic activity
was Quiet to Severe Storm levels over the last 24 hours. There
is also a proton event in progress, continuing on from the recent
long duration flares. Another shock arrival is expected on 11Nov
from the M8.9-class flare that occured at 1700UT and should result
in similar storm conditions that have been observed over the
last few days.
A weak (22nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0931UT on 09 Nov, and a moderate (58nT) impulse was observed
at 1849UT on 09 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal-fair Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 11 2004 1915UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
11 Nov Poor Poor Poor
12 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be depressed for the next
24 hours due to the current geomagnetic storm conditions and
a further expected shock front due to arrive on 11Nov. Trans
polar communications are exprected to be affected by the continued
proton event that is currently in progress. Fair conditions expected
for Mid to High latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 20 depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 25 depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 9 November
and is current for interval 9-11 November. Depressed HF conditions
forecast for the next 24 due to the strong geomagnetic storm
levels that have been observed. These conditions are expected
to continue into and after 11Nov when another shock front arrival
is expected from a M8.9-Class flare at 1700UT. Depressed conditions
expected for southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 657 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 31400 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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