[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 May             31 May             01 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: Solar region 618 has the possibility of producing isolated 
M-class flares. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2223 2222
      Darwin               8   2223 2222
      Townsville          10   2333 2222
      Learmonth            8   1223 2232
      Culgoora             7   1223 1222
      Canberra             7   1223 1222
      Hobart               9   -323 122-
      Casey(Ant)           9   2233 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 MAY : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2012 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 May    12    Unsettled 
31 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
01 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 27 May and 
is current for interval 1-3 June. Generally quiet to unsettled 
conditions expected. A broad and thin coronal hole may produce 
isolated active periods over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days. Slight degradation possible at times for mid to high 
latitudes over the next few days as the result of anticipated 
slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 May    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 May    50    near predicted monthly values 
31 May    50    near predicted monthly values 
01 Jun    50    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly good HF communications conditions expected next 
few days. A mild degradation may be experienced at times over 
the next couple of days for southern Aus/NZ region only as the 
result of anticipated slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    36600 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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