[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 May             29 May             30 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity over the past 
24 hours. Solar wind speed declined from 430 to 350km/sec over 
the UT day. A broad and thin coronal hole is visible in SOHO 
EIT284 imagery extending across the eastern solar hemisphere. 
Recurrence suggests that the Earth will experience a moderately 
elevated (approx. 600km/sec) solar wind stream 1-3 June. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1121 0001
      Darwin               2   1111 0112
      Townsville           2   2111 0002
      Learmonth            2   1221 0001
      Culgoora             1   1111 0001
      Canberra             1   0021 0001
      Hobart               2   0122 0011
      Casey(Ant)           6   2331 1101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 MAY : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   1121 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 May     6    Quiet 
30 May    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 27 May and 
is current for interval 1-3 June. Generally quiet conditions 
expected. A broad and thin coronal hole is expected to induce 
active periods 1-3 June. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days. Mild degradation possible at mid to high latitudes 
1-3 June. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 May    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 May    60    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
29 May    60    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
30 May    60    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly goos HF communications conditions expected next 
few days. A mild degradation may be experienced 1-3 June, southern 
Aus/NZ region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 430 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    47000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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