[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 May             21 May             22 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             100/48
COMMENT: Only B to minor C-class flare activity observed over 
the past 24 hours. There is a small equatorial coronal hole in 
the western solar hemisphere which may produce minor solar wind 
disturbances today. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1111 2322
      Darwin               8   2-22 2324
      Townsville           5   1111 2322
      Learmonth            5   1111 2322
      Culgoora             5   1011 2322
      Canberra             5   1111 2322
      Hobart               5   1111 2322
      Casey(Ant)           6   3221 1212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 MAY : 
      Townsville           9   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             9   (Quiet)
      Canberra            30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1112 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 May    12    Unsettled 
21 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the 
UT day. Solar wind speed remains near nominal values. The Bz 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained mostly 
northward-biased. A period of solar wind velocity and polarity 
fluctuations was observed late in the UT day. A small equatorial 
coronal hole now in the western solar hemisphere may produce 
minor solar wind disturbances on day one, with possible unsettled 
intervals. Conditions should be mostly quiet on days two and 
three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for the next few days 
with possible isolated degradations at mid to high latitudes 
on day one. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 May    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Normal to enhanced over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 May    60    near predicted monthly values 
21 May    60    near predicted monthly values 
22 May    65    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected over 
the next three days. Possible isolated degradations at mid to 
high latitudes on day one in association with mild geomagnetic 
disturbances. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    38700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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