[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 2 09:53:43 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several B-class flares
and two C-class flares were recorded- the largest being a C9.5
from region 601(S09W35) at 1355UT. Region 601 remained quite
active throughout the day and almost all the flares came from
this region. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 500
km/s to 350 km/s (approx.) by 1300UT. It then showed a gradual
increase and went up to 450 km/s by 1800UT and remained nearly
steady at this level until the time of this report. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) showed minor to moderate fluctuations (upto approx. +8nT
and -10nT) around the normal value- remaining mostly southwards.
A high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole, is expected
to keep the solar wind stream strengthened during the next
three day. Region 601 has shown growth during the last 24 hours
and may produce M-class activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet to active.
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 7 3222 2211
Darwin 7 3222 2212
Townsville 7 3222 2211
Learmonth 7 3222 2211
Culgoora 6 2222 2212
Canberra 10 4223 2211
Hobart 7 2223 2211
Casey(Ant) 11 4332 2212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 MAY :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 2331 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 18 Unsettled to active
03 May 20 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible.
04 May 20 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity may remain enhanced during
the next 3 days due to a coronal hole effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
04 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Moderate degradations in HF conditions are possible
at mid and high latitudes during the next 3 days. Minor
degradations may also be recorded at low latitudes on 3 and
4 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with priords of significant depressions and
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
03 May 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
15%.
04 May 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
15%.
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed, especially in the southern
Aus/NZ regions during the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: A6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 60600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list