[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Mar             01 Apr             02 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             135/89
COMMENT: M-class flare activity is possible from solar region 
582. Solar wind speeds have declined very slowly over the past 
24 hours, remaining elevated at approximately 550km/s. The north-south 
component of the IMF continues to fluctuate between +5 to -5 
nT. This coronal hole solar wind stream is expected to continue 
to abate over the next couple of days and geomagnetic activity 
should be mostly quiet to unsettled levels. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 30 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2233 4212
      Darwin              11   1233 4222
      Townsville           8   2223 3213
      Learmonth           10   2223 4211
      Culgoora             9   1233 3211
      Canberra            13   2234 4212
      Hobart              11   2233 4211
      Casey(Ant)          13   3-43 3212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             9   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12   2333 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Mar    12    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of isolated 
                active periods. 
01 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
02 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods were observed over the past 
24 hours due to a persisting coronal hole solar wind stream. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline over the next couple 
of days as solar wind speeds are anticipated to decrease. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Mar    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Mar    75    Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
                5-15% at times. 
01 Apr    80    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
02 Apr    80    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 612 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   157000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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