[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Mar             24 Mar             25 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             120/72
COMMENT: Active region 574 produced a medium duration C8 level 
flare around 0600UT. No radio sweep was reported in association 
with this event. Regions 574 and 578 have declined in area and 
complexity over the past 24 hours. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2322 2322
      Darwin               9   222- 3323
      Townsville           7   2222 1322
      Learmonth            9   3221 1332
      Culgoora             8   2222 2322
      Canberra             9   2322 2322
      Hobart               9   2322 2322
      Casey(Ant)          18   4432 3---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   3334 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has remained steady at 420-440 km/s. 
Bz component of the IMF has shown mild fluctuations of +/- 5 
nT about neutral over the UT day. Isolated active periods were 
observed at high latitudes early in the UT day. Generally quiet 
conditions expected next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. Mild degradations 
possible at times at high latitudes in association with isolated 
geomagnetic disturbances. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Mar    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night, and after
      local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Mar    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
24 Mar    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
25 Mar    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Daytime spread-F observed Antarctic region. Night-time 
spread-F observed S Aus/NZ region. Generally good HF conditions 
observed, and expected next three days. Expect localised minor 
degradations at high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    89200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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