[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 04

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Mar             22 Mar             23 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: No significant flare activity was observed today. Possibility 
of isolated C- to M-class activity from region 578. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2211 2312
      Darwin               5   2211 2213
      Townsville           6   2221 2223
      Learmonth            5   2211 2--2
      Culgoora             5   2211 2212
      Canberra             6   2211 2312
      Hobart               6   2211 2312
      Casey(Ant)          13   34-2 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 MAR : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2302 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Mar    12    Unsettled 
22 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been mostly quiet to unsettled, 
with isolated active intervals at high latitudes only. Solar 
wind speed appears to have peaked at around 400 km/s. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been mostly 
positively biased. There was a period of sustained negative bias 
late in the UT day, possibily in association with a solar sector 
boundary crossing. A brief period of active to storm levels was 
observed at southern polar cusp latitude. Expect possible unsettled 
intervals today, with conditions declining to quiet on days two 
and three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. Mild degradations 
possible on day one at high latitudes in association with anticipated 
mild geomagnetic disturbance. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Mar    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Generally above predicted monthly values,
      with variable local disturbances.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Mar    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
22 Mar    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
23 Mar    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Evening spread-F observed S Aus/NZ regions. Generally 
good HF conditions expected next three days. Expect localised 
minor degradations at high latitudes. Mildly degraded HF communication 
conditions may be experienced local night hours 21 Mar S Aus/NZ 
regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    51500 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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