[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Mar             14 Mar             15 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 650 to 500km/sec over 
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field fluctuated southward over the UT day. The leader spots 
in solar region 570, now located near the centre of the solar 
disk, have reduced in compactness and have declined in area. 
This region may be decaying. A new solar region is rotating around 
the south-east limb of the sun. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 12 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   3443 3422
      Darwin              15   3333 3423
      Townsville          17   3433 3422
      Learmonth           15   3333 3422
      Culgoora            14   3432 3322
      Canberra            21   4442 4422
      Hobart              22   4443 4423
      Casey(Ant)          27   4553 3432
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 MAR : 
      Townsville          13   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           16   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            52   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           115   (Major storm)
      Hobart             154   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             26   4443 4453     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Mar    12    Unsettled 
14 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Declining trend in geomagnetic activity expected to 
continue as effects of recent coronal hole wind stream subside. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Mar    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
14 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
15 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed southern Aus region local day 
yesterday. Improved HF communications conditions expected for 
today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 698 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   297000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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