[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:**RED**     ION: *YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. Possibility 
of isolated C- to M-class flare activity from Region 570. Solar 
wind parameters are at nominal values. An equatorial coronal 
hole is now at solar central meridian, and the elevated solar 
wind stream from this feature is anticipated by day two. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1110 0112
      Darwin               2   1111 0112
      Townsville           1   0101 0112
      Learmonth            1   1100 0111
      Culgoora             0   0100 0012
      Canberra             1   0110 0012
      Hobart               1   0110 0011
      Casey(Ant)           7   2331 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2212 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar     6    Quiet 
09 Mar    25    active 
10 Mar    25    active 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today. 
Mostly quiet conditions are expected today and for the first 
half of the UT day 09 Mar. An equatorial coronal hole is now 
at central solar meridian and the earth is expected to enter 
the high speed wind stream from this feature by the second half 
of day two. Recurrence suggests several days of relatively high 
solar wind speeds with intervals of active geomagnetic conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
09 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
10 Mar      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed at low latitudes 
yesterday. HF conditions should be mostly normal today. A recurrent 
high speed coronal hole wind stream is anticipated by day three. 
Several days of degraded HF conditions at mid to high latitudes 
are expected to follow. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Mar    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 10-20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar    50    near predicted monthly values 
09 Mar    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
10 Mar    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25% 
COMMENT: Variable minor daytime depressions observed N Aus region, 
and may be experienced again today. Otherwise expect mostly normal 
HF conditions today. The onset of a recurrent high speed coronal 
hole wind stream is anticipated by day two. Several days of degraded 
HF conditions at mid to high latitudes are expected to follow. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    48000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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