[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Further CME activity originating from behind the west 
limb was observed during 4 June, however it is not expected to 
be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds have continued to decline 
slowly over the past 24 hours down to approximately 440km/s. 
Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline during 
5 June. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2212 3212
      Darwin               7   2212 3222
      Townsville           7   2212 3221
      Learmonth            5   2212 2212
      Culgoora             7   1213 3211
      Canberra             8   2213 3212
      Hobart              10   2313 3311
      Casey(Ant)           6   2222 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            41   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3331 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Jun     6    Quiet 
07 Jun     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions expected for the 
next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jun    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun    55    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
06 Jun    60    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
07 Jun    60    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A9.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 507 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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