[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 31 09:58:08 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity declined to low levels today. A mild
shock was observed in the solar wind after 20UT, probably resulting
from the flare observed at 28/0610UT. A North-directed partial
halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 15UT. The absence
of any significant solar activity on the visible disk suggests
a backside event.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 2033UT on
30 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 1112 2112
Darwin 5 1122 2223
Townsville 5 1212 2122
Learmonth 4 1112 2213
Culgoora 4 1112 2112
Canberra 3 0112 2112
Hobart 4 1112 2112
Casey(Ant) 10 3332 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 2332 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 10 Quiet to unsettled
01 Aug 15 Mostly quiet. Chance isolated active periods.
02 Aug 8 Mostly quiet. Chance isolated active periods.
COMMENT: A mild shock was observed in the solar wind after 20UT,
which is probably the result of the X-ray flare observed at 28/0610UT.
Geomagnetic effects were minimal, with isolated unsettled to
active periods observed at high latitudes only. A further mild
shock is possible late on day one to early day two, after which
conditions should quickly return to mostly quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable overnight depressions observed at low latitudes.
Localised degradations observed at high latitudes. Mostly normal
HF conditions expected next few days. Chance isolated degradations
at high latitudes days one to two in association with geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Variable overnight depressions, otherwise
near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with localised
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 29 July
and is current for interval 30-31 July. Mild solar wind shock
resulted in minimal effects to HF propagation. Minor overnight
depressions observed at low latitudes. Possible mild degradations
at high latitudes late day one to early day two in association
with a further solar wind shock.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+09 (very high)
X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 543 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 73700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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