[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 29 09:39:42 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was at approximately 900km/sec for
the first hour of the UT day, then rapidly declined to 700km/sec.
Wind speed then gradually declined over the remainder of the
UT day to 600km/sec. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated mildly southward over the UT day. Solar
region 652, now nearing the western solar limb, produced a long
duration C6.2 xray flare maxing at 0811UT, and several lower
C class events later in the UT day. A review of the LASCO spaced
based coronagraph showed a western directed coronal mass ejection,
first visible in C3 wide angle imagery at around 0518UT. This
mass ejection is presumed to be associated with the long duration
C6 event from departing flare active region 652. The Culgoora
Spectrograph showed an probable weak to moderate Type IV emission
descending in frequency from 171Mhz, at 03UT to 18Mhz at 06UT.
However no clear Type II was discernable. A glancing blow from
this mass ejection is expected to arrive late 29/early 30 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 3322 3234
Darwin 11 2322 3335
Townsville 10 3322 2235
Learmonth 12 3322 3335
Culgoora 10 3322 2234
Canberra 12 3332 3234
Hobart 11 3332 3224
Casey(Ant) 15 3333 3-33
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 JUL :
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 84 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 119
Planetary 162 8788 9755
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 18 Initially unsettled, storm conditions possible
late in UT day.
30 Jul 40 Initially at minor storm levels, then declining
to active levels.
31 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be initially at
unsettled levels for today. A coronal mass ejection is expecte
dto arrive late in the UT day or early on 30 July. This CME was
not directly aimed at the Earth, and activity will probably be
confined to first half of UT day on 30 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : Began at 1920UT 25/07, Ended at 1445UT 27/07
and, Began at 1510UT 27/07, Ended at 1735UT 27/07
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
30 Jul Fair Fair-Poor Poor
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Absorption observed at polar regions over past 24 hours,
degrading HF comms quality. HF conditions for today are expected
to be mostly normal. However, degraded comms conditions are expected
for mid to high latitudes late in the UT day or ealry on 30 July
due to expected arrival of coronal mass ejection induced activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed 30% first half UT day,
Enhanced by 45% later half the UT day.
Spoaraid E blanketing, and absorption
observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 25 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Southern Aus regional MUFs were depressed yesterday
following geomagnetic storm activity on 27 July. Some southern
region sites are 15% depressed after local dawn this morning.
Generally fair to normal conditions are expected for today. However,
a possible ionospheric depression response may occur on late
in UT day on 29 July and on 30 July due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity from a recent coronal mass ejection.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 883 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 205000 K Bz: -8 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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