[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 27 09:56:24 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 0552UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1/2N 1730UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity Moderate to high Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Probable Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the past 24 hours.
Region 652 produced two M-Class events and some minor C-Class
events. The maximum flare level observed was a M1.3-Class at
0540UT as well as a M1.0-Class at 1725UT. LASCO imagery indicated
there where no full halo CME's from active region 652's flare
events. The proton event that began yesterday is still in progress,
with greater than 10MeV proton levels above the the event threshold.
Solar wind speed was declining from 700km/s to 600km/s from 0000UT
to 2200UT at which a sudden increase to 1000km/s indicated the
shock arrival from the CME on the 25July had arrived. The north
south component of the inter planetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged
from +/-5nT for most of the UT day. With the shock arrival from
the 25July CME, this has caused Bz to swing between +/-20nT.
Region 652 remains unchanged in its magnetic complexity, has
undergone no significant decay in the last 24 hours, and still
holds the potential for further flare activity. Region 654 showed
small signs of growth but does not have any potential for activity
at this stage.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
26/1730UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 14 5322 1236
Darwin 14 5322 1237
Townsville 12 4332 1236
Learmonth 15 5323 1236
Culgoora 11 4322 1236
Canberra 17 5423 1237
Hobart 12 4323 1237
Casey(Ant) 24 6432 1346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 JUL :
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 15 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Hobart 130 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 64
Planetary 122 6778 6767
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 50 Storm levels
28 Jul 30 Active to Minor storm
29 Jul 16 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 25 July and
is current for interval 25-27 July. The geomagnetic activity
ranged from Unsettled to Major Storm levels over the last 24
hours as the continued effects of the CME's observed on 22-23July
arrived. Conditions are expected to remain at Minor/Major storm
levels over the next 24-36 hours with the arrival of the shock
from 25July's CME event seen at 2200UT. The proton event from
the long duration flare on 25July is also still in progress and
expected to continue over the next 24hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 25 07 2004 1920UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
28 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
29 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions are expected over the next 24
hours, at all latitudes. The proton event from 25July is still
in progress which will result in degraded conditions for tran-polar
communications. Conditions are expected to remain so for the
next 2 days with periods of degradation expected at mid and high
latitudes while gemoagnetic storm levels remain high.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 26 July
and is current for interval 26-28 July (SWFs) . Southern region
MUFs depressed after local dawn this morning, following continued
geomangetic storm activity. Minor degradation periods in HF conditions
are expected for northern Australia regions over the next 24
hours. Depressed conditions for southern regions of AUS/NZ are
expected over the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 569 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 185000 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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