[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 12 09:51:28 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed in the past 24
hours. The possibility of M-class flare activity is expected
to increase as a bright new region rotates onto the visible disk
from behind the south-east limb. Solar wind parameters indicate
the Earth is presently under the infulence of an unexpected high
speed coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds have
increased from 300 km/s up to approximately 550 km/s over the
past 24 hours. The IMF had sustained southward periods over the
past 24 hours, reaching values of around -10nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 2113 3234
Darwin 11 3223 3234
Townsville 9 3123 3223
Learmonth 9 2123 3233
Culgoora 8 2113 3134
Canberra 8 2113 3134
Hobart 5 1112 3124
Casey(Ant) 7 2112 3224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 1232 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 16 Mostly unsettled with the chance of active and
isolated minor storm periods.
13 Jul 12 Unsettled
14 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: An unexpected high speed coronal hole solar wind stream
is expected to result in mildly increased geomagnetic activity
for the next two days. Active and isolated minor storm periods
are possible for 12 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected at times
for 12 July as the result of mildly increased geomagnetic activity.
Depressions of 10-15% are possible for mid-high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 30 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected at times
for 12 July as the result of mildly increased geomagnetic activity.
Depressions of 10-15% are possible for southern regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 56500 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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