[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 4 09:36:24 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The sun was flare quiet over the past 24 hours. A disappearing
solar filament was reported in the south-east quadrant early
in the UT day. Background solar X-ray flux remains low at A-levels.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
03/0200UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 2222 2122
Darwin 6 2222 2122
Townsville 5 2112 2122
Learmonth 5 1222 2122
Culgoora 5 1122 2122
Canberra 6 2222 2121
Hobart 5 2122 2121
Casey(Ant) 4 2221 210-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 JUL :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2322 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 8 Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods
05 Jul 8 Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods
06 Jul 8 Mostly quiet, chance unsettled periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were predominantly quiet, with
isolated unsettled periods. Solar wind speed declined steadily
over the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field has remained mostly slightly northward, with brief minor
southward fluctuations. A brief transient ion enhancement was
observed early in the UT day. Conditions should remain mostly
quiet with isolated unsettled periods for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed at low latitudes, recovering
after local dawn. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the
next three days. Isolated periods of disturbance possible at
high latitudes in association with geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed equatorial region, recovering
after local dawn. Evening spread-F observed S Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few
days, with variable conditions possible at low and high latitudes.
Possible evening spread-F conditions S Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: A3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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