[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 1 10:48:42 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1824UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was moderate today. Region
528(N09W93), on the western limb, produced the largest flare
of the day, an M1.0 at 1824UT. The solar wind stream has been
strengthened, most likely due to the anticipated coronal hole
activity. The solar wind speed remained between 450 and 400 km/s
(approx) during the first half of the UT day today and then
increased in the second half of the UT day. The solar wind
speed remained between 580 and 500 km/s (approx) during the
second half of the UT day. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained near the normal
value during the first half of the UT day and showed fluctuations
between +5 and -10nT (approx) during the second half of the
UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at low
levels during the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 2233 3334
Darwin 13 2232 3434
Townsville 14 2233 3434
Learmonth 14 2233 3433
Culgoora 11 1233 3323
Canberra 13 2333 3334
Hobart 11 2332 2334
Casey(Ant) 24 --54 3334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 8 2132 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 23 Mostly active.
02 Jan 18 Unsettled to active
03 Jan 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The coronal hole effect, currently in progress,
is expected to keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced on
01 and 02 January, 2004. The geomagnetic activity is
expected to remain mostly at active levels on 01 January
and then gradually decrease to quiet to unsettled levels
by 03 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions are possible at mid and
high latitudes during the next two days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 60 near predicted monthly values in northern regions
/depressed 5 to 10% in southern regions.
02 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions may be observed in Southern
Australian/NZ regions due to anticipated continuation of
enhanced geomagnetic activity on 01 and 02 January. The
T-index value in Southern Australian/NZ regions may remain
close to approximately 40 units on 01 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 61500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list