[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Feb             04 Feb             05 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased from 470 to 680km/sec over 
the UT day. Elevated solar wind speed due to coronal hole wind 
stream. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field fluctuated southward by up to 10nT at times during the 
UT day. A mild increase in solar activity remains possible.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2233 3323
      Darwin              12   3233 3323
      Townsville          14   3233 4323
      Learmonth           11   2233 3322
      Culgoora            11   2233 3323
      Canberra            11   2233 3322
      Hobart              14   2343 3322
      Casey(Ant)          24   --54 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 FEB : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   2322 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
04 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
05 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Active periods possible next few days due to a coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF communications quality expected 
at mid to high latitudes due to activity induced by solar 
coronal hole wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Feb    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Feb    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
04 Feb    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
05 Feb    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions probable briefly after local dawn for 
southern Aus/NZ regions over next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 556 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   140000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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