[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 04

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Dec             27 Dec             28 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 25 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   2443 3223
      Darwin              10   2333 2223
      Townsville          15   2443 3223
      Learmonth           14   3343 3222
      Culgoora            15   2443 3223
      Canberra            15   2443 3223
      Hobart              13   2443 2223
      Casey(Ant)          26   -554 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0001 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Dec    20    active 
27 Dec    13    Unsettled to Active 
28 Dec    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 
A weak (19nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 0738UT on 25 Dec. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Dec    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Dec    40    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Dec    40    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
28 Dec    60    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 387 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    78700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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