[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 04

Thu Dec 23 10:35:43 EST 2004

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec:  99/46

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Dec             24 Dec             25 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: The solar region mentioned in yesterdays report, now 
near central meridian, still retains its magnetic complexity, 
but again has not as yet produced significant flare activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 22 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   2344 4223
      Darwin              15   2343 4223
      Townsville          13   2343 3223
      Learmonth           16   2343 4233
      Culgoora            15   33-- ----
      Canberra            18   2444 4223
      Hobart              18   2444 4223
      Casey(Ant)          16   4--4 3223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              42   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             12   2135 2322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Dec    13    Unsettled to Active 
24 Dec     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Dec    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Dec    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Dec    35    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Dec    50    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Dec    50    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   105000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"