[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 04

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Dec             22 Dec             23 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: A solar region in the south east solar quadrant is whoing 
growth in size and magnetic complexity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2222 2012
      Darwin               4   2112 2112
      Townsville           4   1222 2002
      Learmonth            4   2112 2011
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             4   2222 1001
      Hobart               4   2222 1011
      Casey(Ant)           8   ---3 2123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4   1011 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Dec    19    active 
23 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Dec    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
  Northern Australian Region:
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Dec    40    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Dec    40    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
23 Dec    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 475 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    64200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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