[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Dec             19 Dec             20 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was elevated at 600-650km/sec due to 
a coronal hole wind stream. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field again fluctuated southward (5nT) 
over the UT day. The Sun has been flare quiet over past 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 17 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3433 2333
      Darwin              12   3333 2232
      Townsville          15   3433 3323
      Learmonth           13   3333 2333
      Culgoora            11   3333 2222
      Canberra            14   3433 2323
      Hobart              17   3442 3333
      Casey(Ant)          24   5--4 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec : 
      Townsville          12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           51   (Unsettled)
      Culgoora            57   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           112   (Major storm)
      Hobart             107   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   1321 2243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
19 Dec     6    Quiet 
20 Dec     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 16 December 
and is current for interval 17-18 December. Isolated active periods 
expected due to coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions at mid to high laitudes may become mild 
to moderately degraded today due to coronal hole wind stream 
induced geomagnetic activity. Low to mid latitude conditions 
are expected to remain near normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Dec    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Dec    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
19 Dec    35    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Dec    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 16 December 
and is current for interval 17-18 December. Northern Aus region 
MUFs enhanced 15% at times, resulting in a higher T than forecast. 
Also, depressions for southern Aus region were less than expected 
yeserday. Depressions after local dawn again expected for today 
for southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 464 km/sec  Density:    7.0 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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