[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 1 09:54:50 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Region 582 (N14W10)
was the most active region today as it produced several
C-class flares, which include the largest flare, a C7.4 at
2008UT and a relatively longer duration flare C3.7 at 0935UT.
As anticipated, the solar wind speed has further slowed down.
The solar wind speed gradually degreased from 560 km/s to
450 km/s (approx.) during the UT day. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value and it remained
between +4nT and -4nT for most of the time. This indicates that
the anticipated decline in the coronal hole effect is in
progress. This effect is expected to decline further during
the next two days. Region 587 has shown growth during the
last 24 hours. Region 582 holds potential for M-class flare
activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 2121 3232
Darwin 5 2121 2222
Townsville 7 1111 3232
Learmonth 8 2121 3231
Culgoora 5 1121 2222
Canberra 8 1221 3232
Hobart 8 1222 3232
Casey(Ant) 10 3--2 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 MAR :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 102 (Major storm)
Hobart 131 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 1244 4321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 8 Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible.
02 Apr 6 Quiet
03 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to further
decline during the next few days as the coronal hole effect
is expected to gradually subside during this period. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected to be observed in almost all
regions during the next 3 days, with some possibility of
isolated unsettled periods, particularly on high latitudes,
on day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected
for the next few days in most regions. However, isolated
periods of minor degradations are possible on high latitudes
on 01 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Priods of enhancements upto 35% with
periods of minor depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 75 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr 78 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr 84 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected
for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 584 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 182000 K
Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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