[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 21 09:49:57 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Five C-class flares
were observed, the largest being a C3.6 at 1536UT possibly
from region 464(N05E77). The solar wind speed increased from
650 to 750 km/s (approx) during the first half of the UT day
and then gradually decreased to 600 km/s (approx.) during
the rest of the UT day. The strengthening of the solar wind
stream in the first half of the UT day may probably be
attributed to the second coronal hole spreading East-West
currently. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field kept fluctuating between +5 and -5 nT almost
the whole day- mostly remaining southwards. The solar wind
stream is expected to remain strengthened for the next few
days due to the combined effect of the two coronal holes in
geoeffective position at the moment. The solar activity is
expected to remain at low levels during the next three days.
However, there may be a slight chance of an isolated M-flare
possibly from region 464.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 29 3445 4532
Darwin 32 3455 5432
Townsville 29 3445 5432
Learmonth 28 2435 5521
Canberra 24 3435 4432
Hobart 23 3345 4422
Casey(Ant) 31 4434 36--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 SEP :
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 131 (Severe storm)
Hobart 126 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 32 4455 5443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 25 Mostly active. Isolated minor storm periods possible.
22 Sep 22 Mostly active.
23 Sep 22 Mostly active.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained enhanced at
unsettled to minor storm level today due to the continued
effect of the coronal hole induced high speed solar wind
stream. The geomagnetic activity may remain enhanced on
21 and 22 September and then show gradual decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Fair Fair Fair-Poor
22 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
23 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderately degraded conditions may be
expected during the next two days, especially at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day with periods
of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 57
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 42 Depressed 5 to 15%/Near predicted monthly values.
22 Sep 45 Depressed 5%/Near predicted monthly values.
23 Sep 55 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions, more likely in the southern Aus/NZ regions,
may be observed during the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 716 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 261000 K
Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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