[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Sep             08 Sep             09 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed further declined from 600 to 550 km/sec 
over the UT day. Further decline again expected today. Another 
coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected during interval 
8-10 Sep. The coronal hole of origin of this wind stream is visible 
in SOHO and SEC SXI imagery iin the middle of the solar disk. 
The solar disk has been quiet over the past 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2233 2222
      Darwin              12   --34 2222
      Townsville           7   2223 2122
      Learmonth            8   2223 2221
      Canberra             8   2223 2221
      Hobart               8   2223 2221
      Casey(Ant)          17   4443 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             16   3434 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Sep    11    Unsettled 
08 Sep    20    Active, chance for minor storm periods. 
09 Sep    18    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 5 September 
and is current for interval 8-10 September. Coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic activity expected 8-10 Sep. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected today. Mild to 
moderately degraded condtions are expected at mid to high latitudes 
after 08 Sep. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Sep    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Sep    70    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
08 Sep    70    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
09 Sep    70    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The recent run of enhancements came to an end yesterday 
with only Vanimo MUFs being 15-20% above predicted monthly values 
for September. Good HF condtions expected today. However, another 
period of mildly degraded conditions is expected after 08 Sep. 
Degradations expected to be confined to southern Aus/NZ region 
mostly during local night hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 639 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   196000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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