[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 15 08:45:38 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to rise starting the day
at 500km/sec and increasing to 600km/sec toward end of UT day.
Rise in solar wind speed due to solar coronal hole wind stream.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
was southward by about 5nT for most of the UT day, increasing
toward 10nT south 17-21UT. The coronal hole wind stream from
this hole has a southward Bz orientation and further elevated
wind speeds and southward orientation of Bz expected today. Elevated
wind speed conditions expected until about 19 Oct. The Sun was
flare quiet over past 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 24 3343 4455
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 20 2233 4455
Learmonth 28 2333 5555
Culgoora 26 3333 5455
Canberra 25 2243 5455
Hobart 24 2354 -4-5
Casey(Ant) 17 4-33 333-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Culgoora 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 3222 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 25 Active to minor storm
16 Oct 20 Active to minor storm
17 Oct 18 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 12 October
and is current for interval 14-16 October. Geomagnetic activity
forecast increased due to southward magnetic orientation of high
speed wind stream from coronal hole now passing solar central
meridian. Southward interplanetary magnetic field orientation
is associated with stronger geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Fair Fair Fair-Poor
16 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Poor-Fair
17 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degradation in HF conditions stronger than expected.
Degradation associated with coronal hole high speed wind stream.
Continued degradation expected today, then possibly slightly
easing but remaining somewhat degraded over next 3 to 4 days
at mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values, depressed 15-20%
late in UT day. Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 20 depressed 10 to 25% (southern Aus/NZ region)
15 Oct 50 near predicted monthly values (northern Aus)
16 Oct 30 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 40 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on 12 October
and is current for interval 15-16 October. Depressed conditions
observed after local dawn this morning southern Aus/NZ region.
Northern Aus region MUFs (north of Brisbane) are showing a much
less depression response to overnight geomagnetic activity, induced
by a solar coronal hole high speed wind stream, hence there are
two T indices forecast for today with a T index of 50 for northern
Aus region, and a Tindex of 20 for southern Aus/NZ region. If
you are communicating from one region to another it is suggested
to use the lower of the two indices. Coronal hole induced geomagnetic
activity expected next few days which will probably keep southern
Aus/NZ region MUfs lower than normal possibly until 18 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 53200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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