[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Oct             04 Oct             05 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72
COMMENT: Active solar region 464 produced a few C-class flares, 
the largest was a C7 event at 0650UT. This region is now quite 
close to the west solar limb. A mainly north-directed partial 
halo CME of unknown origin was observed in LASCO C3 imagery around 
the mid-part of the UT day. Isolated C to M-class activity is 
possible today from regions 464 and 471. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2222 1223
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           6   2222 1223
      Learmonth            7   2222 1133
      Canberra             5   1221 1223
      Hobart               4   1221 1123
      Casey(Ant)          14   34-- 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3223 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Oct    12    Unsettled 
04 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Fluctuating solar wind velocities and densities are 
indicative of a transient passage. Solar wind speed has increased 
slightly over the UT day and IMF magnetic field has trended southward 
over the latter part of the UT day. Possible unsettled to active 
periods today at high latitudes, otherwise geomagnetic conditions 
should remain at quiet to unsettled levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect normal to enhanced HF propagation conditions 
over the next few days. Possible isolated periods of disturbance 
at high latitudes today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Oct    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Oct    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
04 Oct   100    20 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
05 Oct   100    20 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Brief depression observed at low latitudes during local 
morning. Expect normal to enhanced ionospheric propagation conditions 
for the next few days. Isolated periods of disturbance possible 
today at high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 285 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    21100 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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